TikTok, the popular video-sharing app owned by ByteDance, has been facing an ultimatum from the Biden administration to sell its shares or face a ban in the US. While TikTok has been a target of US politicians for some time, the recent warning from the administration has appeared to sharpen the rhetoric around the issue. TikTok’s leadership is now actively discussing the possibility of divesting the app from its Chinese owner, according to Bloomberg. While a spokesperson for TikTok said that such a move would not address national security concerns, the discussions indicate that the company is taking the ultimatum seriously.
However, a TikTok ban would be a major win for Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who has much to gain from it. In fact, it would be like a birthday gift coming early for Meta, which is looking to boost engagement of its rival service, Instagram Reels. According to Dan Ives, a Wedbush tech analyst, any bad news or added scrutiny for TikTok would be a significantly bullish sign for Zuckerberg and Facebook. They would be the natural beneficiaries of a TikTok ban.
Zuckerberg has been stoking Washington’s fears about TikTok for some time. In 2020, he reportedly told the White House at a dinner that Chinese companies should be scrutinized more heavily than Facebook. And last year, the Washington Post reported that Meta paid a Republican consulting firm to set up an anti-TikTok campaign. At the time, a Meta spokesperson appeared to defend the effort, saying that all platforms, including TikTok, should face a level of scrutiny consistent with their growing success.
TikTok has been a thorn in Facebook’s side since it became wildly popular. Last year, Zuckerberg reportedly warned staff that the company faces unprecedented competition from the video-sharing app. TikTok quickly became one of the most popular social media platforms in the US, boasting more than 1 billion active monthly users and capturing the attention of younger generations—a demographic Facebook and Instagram have struggled to attract.
In recent years, Zuckerberg has looked to Instagram Reels in an attempt to answer TikTok’s popularity, even introducing a controversial redesign that inserted more Reels videos in people’s feeds. However, Reels doesn’t have TikTok’s secret sauce: an algorithm designed to keep users hooked. Last year, the Wall Street Journal reported that Instagram users spend 17.6 million hours a day watching Reels, while people spend an astounding 197.8 million hours a day on TikTok.
Social media expert Matt Navarra told Insider that Meta’s algorithm is still in the early learning phases, but any disruption to TikTok could give the company some time to catch up. “That time that was spent on TikTok will have to go somewhere,” Navarra said. “It’s reasonable to expect that these companies that have sort of created clones of the app would absorb at least some of that time.”
In the short term, apps like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts could also see a boost. Navarra said social media creators are likely to look to further diversify the social media sites they use in the face of a potential ban.
While a TikTok ban could benefit Facebook and Meta, it remains to be seen if it will actually happen. Ives places the odds of a spinoff or shutdown below 50%, citing legal issues that the Trump administration encountered in 2020. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is scheduled to testify before Congress about the company’s ties to China, as well as its handling of user data and child safety issues on the app. Spokespeople for Meta and TikTok did not respond to a request for comment ahead of publication.
In conclusion, a TikTok ban in the US would have significant implications for the social media landscape and the future of the tech industry.